Xi-ism, Trumpism, and the Unravelling of the World Order

Put your finger on what Xi-ism and Trumpism really are. And it’s easy to see why World War Three no longer feels far away.

Political “-isms” are history’s shorthand for leaders who change the game. No Tory hopeful fails to mention their “inner Thatcherism” as badge of approval when speaking to the party base.

But dare to define Xi-ism and Trumpism and you see the bad place our world now finds itself. We are not just comparing two leaders. But coming to terms with two rival operating systems. Both are incompatible with each other, and neither resembles the post-WW2 global construct that served the world well for decades.

Xi-ism is authoritarian capitalism with Chinese characteristics. A model that trades freedom for order, sells stability as prosperity, and builds an economic ecosystem designed to lure nations into its orbit, with fewer questions asked.

Trumpism is populist nationalism with American characteristics. A movement that elevates identity over institutions, wraps isolationism in the banner of America First, and abandons America’s long-standing commitment to global order.

Xi-ism and Trumpism are incompatible. But together they are dismantling the post-war system that once tethered the world to liberal democracy, a system America itself helped to create. The UN is paralysed by the veto. The World Trade Organisation is broken, with America refusing to honour its appeals process. The IMF and World Bank, underfunded and unsure of mission, struggle to keep pace.

On the current trajectory, our world is splintering. States, especially in the Global South, are already being forced to choose sides. China has spent decades designing an alternative global architecture - institutions that look and act like Western ones but answer to Beijing. The most powerful is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which met in Tianjin, China. Probably the most powerful global institution you’ve never heard of: an Asian version of the EU and NATO rolled into one, now representing around half the world’s population and a quarter of global GDP. What began as a border-security club has grown into the world’s largest regional organisation, commanding vast markets, critical resources, and the loyalty of states increasingly drifting from Washington’s orbit.

Alongside it sit two other pillars of Xi-ism’s rival order. The first is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing’s trillion-dollar infrastructure drive that binds continents to China through ports, railways and pipelines - but on China’s terms. Established in 2013, today it ties in over 140 countries.

The second is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a parallel to the World Bank that handles much of the BRI’s finances. And to keep everyone on the same page, there’s also the BRICS group of nations - now rivalling the G7 as a strategic bloc. To the unaligned or neutral country, the appeal of this stable trading bloc cannot be dismissed. To the authoritarian state, it’s a no-brainer.

Back in 1990, arguably the high-water mark for the post-war global order, nearly two-thirds of states could be classed as democracies. Today fewer than half make that grade, while the number of authoritarian regimes has doubled, leaving the majority of the world’s people living under autocratic rule.

Back to Trumpism. It’s plain to see that America is doing little to check China’s advance. Only with collective Western will can a serious counterweight be built - and without American leadership, that remains unlikely.

Here lies the hard truth: we have our work cut out persuading Trump that Trumpism needs an upgrade. The accolade he covets most is the Nobel Peace Prize. But his response to the thunderous drive-by of China’s hard power through Tiananmen Square this week should not be more hard power alone (where America still holds the upper hand), but more soft power - where our skills have withered just as China’s have advanced.

So where does is leave us? China has spent decades building an alternative architecture, while America and the West have allowed their own institutions to wither. If the liberal order is to survive, it cannot be through hard power alone, it must be through the renewal of soft power.

The celebration by many MPs when the aid budget was cut reflected a naivety of how hard and soft power are two sides of the same coin. Used wisely, soft power is not charity; it is an investment in stability. It promotes good governance, supports education, strengthens institutions and stabilises fragile states. You cannot tackle extremism, tackle migration at source or contain a pandemic overseas with more ships, tanks and jets.

And you cannot invest in a viable global order or challenge the creeping spread of authoritarian models by withdrawing your global reach. Strategic overseas engagement has always been Britain’s comparative advantage - it prevents threats before they reach our shores and rallies others to our side. As the US General Jim Mattis once put it: “The less you spend on aid, the more ammunition I have to buy.”

Our world is changing fast. Trumpism is not the answer. But neither is Xi-ism. Nor is Thatcherism for that matter. Let’s lift our heads up and rediscover the confidence to shape the century, not be shaped by it. Otherwise, our world is heading towards conflict.