3% of GDP on defence

Originally published in The Times

In a few weeks, under the glare of the world's media, an armoured car with police escort will drive Britain's new prime minister from Buckingham Palace to Downing Street to be met outside No 10 by the cabinet secretary. A few words to the waiting press — no doubt about addressing Brexit — then indoors for key briefings on the first duty of government, the nation's security.

The classified, agency-led presentation will place Brexit into some much-needed wider perspective. It will be a reality check exposing the nation's collective naivety over the durability of the relative peace we enjoy today and the hard power we actually possess.

As we've been busy debating Brexit the world has become more dangerous than any time since the Cold War. Impressive though our current military capabilities are, unless we make a conscious decision to upgrade our defence posture, our foreign policy — the ability to influence international events as a force for good — will be severely limited under the new prime minister's watch.

We often speak of the erosion of our rules-based order caused by resurgent nations, continued extremism and cyber interferences. Rather than address this worrying trend the world is responding by becoming more protectionist and more isolationist. This is the antithesis of what Britain is about.

As we Conservatives debate policies we hope will widen the party's electoral appeal, calling for Britain to stand tall and lead in a changing world would gain traction well beyond our base. And send a powerful message across Europe.

That cannot be achieved with the current defence spending, which is about to be overtaken by France. We boast impressive new aircraft carriers but without a sizeable budget increase the rest of the surface fleet is impacted. Likewise, the introduction of the Typhoon and F35, impressive and world-beating kit, but our fast jet capability has shrunk from 36 during the Gulf War to six. Both our main battle tank and warrior APC are over 20 years old and like so much of our kit are pending upgrades.

Critically, manpower across all three services is shrinking by around 2,000 personnel a year. Good people are choosing to depart the career they love because of operational tempos, poor accommodation and pay that's no longer competitive. New dimensions of warfare such as cyber and space security also demand investment.

To be clear, this not just about defence in isolation, but a challenge to leadership candidates to register increasing global volatility and commit to a bolder, more engaged foreign policy which increased defence spending is a prerequisite. The first line of the SDSR 2015 also reminds us, our economic security — our prosperity — is ever dependent upon our national security.

To this end we must improve strategic oversight of, and co-operation between, the Foreign Office and also the ministries of Defence, International Development and Trade. Tying together coherent strategies that link security and governance programmes with international trade opportunities is key.

No one country alone can solve the gathering global challenges we face: the rise of China, resurgent Russia, a volatile Middle East, evolving threats such as cyber and counter-terrorism that operate without borders.

As we illustrated 75 years ago in Normandy, Britain has gained an enviable reputation as a world leader, a nation that solves problems and defends and promotes hard-fought standards and values. But we have become risk averse and distracted. Aspiring to raise our game in this way will require heading towards a commitment of 3 per cent GDP on defence. I hope our new prime minister will make that commitment.