Ukraine Cannot be left out of any negotiations with Russia Boom – The Penny Has Finally Dropped

After a valiant three-year battle, Ukraine will cede one-fifth of its land to Russia, Putin lives on to fight another day, and America is pulling out of Europe. 

This is game-changing. The repercussions for NATO’s survival, Europe’s security, and Britain’s own defences are immense. Straightway, there should be no further debate about spending more on UK defence.  

Here at the Munich Security Conference, the irony is unmistakable. Once again, in this city, a peace deal is being stitched together by ceding terrain to an aggressor in the hope of avoiding a wider conflict. The strategy of “Peace in Our Time,” as Chamberlain famously claimed in 1938, has no better chance of success today. 

Some of us saw this coming. Our hesitance to supply Ukraine with the munitions and platforms needed—choosing instead to engage in very public debates over whether to send tanks, F-16s, or other lethal aid—gave Putin the space to prepare and react. Yet NATO continues to claim victory over Putin: yes its membership has grown, defence spending has increased, and its front line has been reinforced. But as a deterrence to prevent a war in Europe - NATO has failed. Putin gambled the alliance would blink following his invasion—and he was right. Those who argue that a robust NATO response would have triggered nuclear war must recognize that this was a constant risk throughout the Cold War. Managing escalation was the essence of Cold War statecraft, a skill we have lost—too often paralyzed by Putin’s nuclear rhetoric. 

This deal now proposed by the U.S. ends the conflict but not the war in Europe. America has set the terms for a ceasefire but then intends to abandon the table, ruling out  any long-term U.S. support to keep Ukraine safe. 

Putin could not have imagined a better outcome. Not only has he survived, but he can also claim ‘victory’ at home. The bully has won. More importantly, he has been treated like the superpower he longs for Russia to be—while Ukraine is excluded from the talks. 

Trump is right in one respect: too many NATO countries still fail to meet the 2% GDP defence spending target. But America abandoning European security in this manner is reckless. Beyond Eastern Europe, global security is deteriorating. Globalization is collapsing, and the World Order is unravelling. America alienating Europe—whether through trade wars or abandoning security commitments—only strengthens the very adversary Trump claims to want to contain: China. 

A weakened Europe will embolden Russia to re-arm, regroup, and pursue its imperial ambitions in Eastern Europe while escalating the grey-zone warfare that is already causing economic damage and sowing political discord.  

Moreover, it will prevent Europe from collaborating with the U.S. to counter China’s growing technological, military, and economic might—distracting the West as it braces for Putin’s next move. 

The world is splintering into two dangerously competitive spheres of influence: China, Russia, Iran, and much of the Global South versus the West. Trump’s current approach risks fragmenting the West, playing directly into the hands of our adversaries. 

One can only hope that Britain’s back channels to the White House are working overtime to persuade Trump to think again. Otherwise this will be 1938 all over again.