Schoolyard threats with apocalyptic high stakes

Published by the Daily Mail on 3rd August 2025.

THIS is classic gunboat diplomacy – a demonstration of brute American force to make Russia think twice about making idle threats. President Trump’s public announcement that he was redeploying two nuclear submarines is obviously designed to avoid – not incite – all-out war with Moscow.

But it’s also a potentially dangerous escalation between two nations armed to the teeth with weapons capable of extinguishing life on this planet. And it underscores how sour the US-Russia relationship is becoming.

At its heart is the rude awakening that Mr Trump has had to experience since he took office. Remember how, before he re-entered the White House, he promised that he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours?

Once re-installed in the White House, he even sided with Putin over Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in pursuit of such a peace deal.

But Mr Trump’s assumption he could do business with Putin has since come crashing down. Every time the West flinched at Putin’s nuclear threats during discussions about arming Ukraine, it emboldened him. Once you’re spooked, Putin has you over a barrel.

Secondly, what does this say about the backchannels between the West and Moscow?

After the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, there were big red phones on both presidents’ desks, reminding them 24/7 that in a nuclear conflict there are no winners. But now, over 60 years on, these two nuclear superpowers are arguing on social media.

To keep this in perspective, this wasn’t a formal White House response to satellite images showing missile launchers on the move in the US’s backyard. Nor was it triggered by a declaration of military intent from Putin. It came from Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council – a man known for stirring up mischief on social media.

Last week he sought to tweak Mr Trump’s tail by warning that each new US ultimatum over the conflict in Ukraine was ‘a threat and a step towards war’.

Tough words, but hardly reason for the US President publicly to redeploy two nuclear submarines?

This episode shines a spotlight on Mr Trump’s strategic misstep. After going out on a limb to find a deal on Ukraine, he’s been humiliated. And now his response feels like an overreaction to comments that, when analysed, didn’t warrant the attention they received.

Ultimately, this should serve as a steep learning curve – one that shows Mr Trump just how flawed that Russia-friendly stance really was and how essential backchannels are.

It also shows how alarmingly close we may be to sliding toward open conflict.

Donald, this isn’t statecraft. It’s schoolyard brinkmanship with apocalyptic stakes.

Tobias Ellwood was Defence Minister from 2017 to 2019.