Our Nuclear Weapon wont save us...

A tactical nuclear weapon will be used in anger within the next five years - and Britain is not ready. 

By any measure, the storm clouds are gathering. We are not yet at war, but we are no longer at peace. For too long we have assumed that our nuclear deterrent, and the post–Cold War complacency that large-scale conflict was improbable, would keep Britain safe. 

The rules of war are being ignored, boundaries tested, lines crossed. As a new arms race accelerates, we are struggling to keep pace with the changing character of conflict. Our conventional forces, sea, land and air, urgently need modernisation, while the new domains of cyber and space also demand serious investment. 

What ultimately kept Britain safe during the Cold War now needs updating. For decades our nuclear arsenal was treated as the ultimate insurance policy: a guarantee that existential threats would remain distant. One submarine has been on patrol at all times since 1969, ready to receive a coded message authorising a strike to pre-set coordinates — the captain left only to pull the trigger. 

Yet behind the tradition lies fragility. The four Vanguard-class boats are decades old, stretched beyond their intended life. Their Dreadnought replacements will not enter service until the early 2030s. A single delay could break the chain of deterrence that has never faltered. We’ve finally decided to invest in air-delivered tactical nuclear weapons (the B61), but again, no delivery until the next decade. 

Meanwhile, the global framework that once restrained nuclear powers has collapsed. The INF Treaty is gone, Russia has suspended New START, and China was never bound by it. No serious arms-control dialogue remains as the nuclear club grows. Soon, non-state actors may have the weapon. 

The greater danger today is not global annihilation but the use of low-yield nuclear weapons in a regional war, or by proxy through a non-state actor. Russia openly rehearses such scenarios, believing the West might blink. Once that line is crossed, escalation becomes a test of nerve, not policy. 

We cannot respond proportionately because our preparedness simply isn’t there. Our air and missile defences are thin. Even a limited strike could cause chaos. Civil defence planning has vanished, and the public is unprepared.  

To restore credibility, Britain must accelerate the Dreadnought programme along with delivery of its tactical nuclear capability in the next five years. Nuclear doctrine must also be updated so our thresholds for response are clear and unambiguous. Without a spectrum of nuclear choices, and clarity of resolve, our deterrence risks becoming a bluff. 

This is not scaremongering. It’s reality. The nuclear age never ended; it only went quiet. And now, as the noise returns, Britain must decide whether it still wants to hear the siren first, or the silence after. 

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First Published in The I paper on 2nd December 2026.